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Gray swan hurricanes could be stronger and more deadly than Hurricane Katrina. Credit: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Just because something has never been seen before doesn’t mean it can’t happen in the future. And in the case of hurricanes, what hasn’t been seen before could be especially deadly in the future.
Our planet’s warming climate is forecast to boost the maximum power of hurricanes. That means not only more rain and stronger winds, but higher storm surges. And it could create hurricanes in regions where they’re seldom or never seen.
Researchers ran thousands of simulations of “gray swan” hurricanes. Such storms are beyond what anyone has ever seen, but they might be forecast using current models.
In particular, the scientists looked at the likelihood of storms with catastrophic storm surges in Tampa, Dubai, and a site in Australia. And they found that all three locations could be in trouble.
In Tampa, for example, the highest storm surge ever recorded was 15 feet, during a hurricane in 1848. In today’s climate, there’s a 1-in-10,000 chance of a surge of up to 19 feet. By the end of the century, though, the odds of such a surge might increase to about 1 in 700. The 1-in-10,000 odds would apply to a surge of 35 feet — enough to inundate the entire city.
Things look just as bad for Australia and Dubai. In Dubai, in fact, they may be even worse. Despite the warm waters, no hurricane has ever been recorded in the Persian Gulf. Add a few degrees to the climate, though, and the risk of a hurricane with a killer storm surge goes up dramatically — a gray swan with a powerful bite.
